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The Microsoft Propaganda Model
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Recent large-scale projects in the field of Artificial Intelligence have dramatically improved the quality of language models, unfolding a wide range of practical applications from automated speech/voice recognition and autocomplete to more specialised applications in healthcare and finance. Yet the power of this tool has also, inevitably, raised concerns about potential malicious uses by political actors. This CREST guide highlights the threat of one specific misuse: the potential use of language models by extremist actors for propaganda purposes.
The development of these models is very expensive, necessitating large teams of developers, numerous servers, and extensive data to train on. As a consequence, performant models have been created by well-endowed projects or companies like Google (BERT in 2018), OpenAI (GPT- 2 in 2019, GPT-3 in 2020), and DeepMind (GOPHER in 2022), who entered a race to design and deliver the most powerful model trained on the biggest base corpus, implementing the most parameters, and resting on the most pertinent architecture. GPT-3, for instance, was trained on approximately 500 billion words scraped from a wide range of internet spaces between 2016 and 2019; its development is estimated to have costed over $15million on top of staff salaries. Microsoft started an investment in OpenAI of no less than $1billion in July 2019.
These problems echo broader worries about AI in general, with other techniques like deepfakes or molecules toxicity prediction models generating critical controversies and concerns about seemingly inevitable malicious uses (Chesney & Citron 2019; Urbina et al. 2022; see Read More).
The leading AI companies have therefore attempted to typologize and explore the various potential areas/types of malicious use and ethical issues posed by large-scale language models. OpenAI, for instance, published several reviews (Solaiman et al. 2019; Brown et al. 2020), and commissioned an assessment from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey to evaluate the risk that their model could help produce extremist language (McGuffie & Newhouse 2020).
Across all these studies, a key claim holds consensus: the real power of language models is not so much that it could automatically produce large amounts of problematic content in one click (they are too imperfect for truly achieving that), but rather that they enable significant economies of scale. In other words, the cost of creating such content is about to plummet.
Working with various types (e.g., forum posts, magazines paragraphs) and styles (e.g., US white supremacist, incel online discussion, ISIS propaganda) of extremist content, we implemented that workflow with varying parameters to generate thousands of outputs. This systematic work immediately unfolded two main findings:
To more rigorously test the credibility of the synthetic output beyond these two observations, we ran two survey experiments testing the credibility of a randomly selected sample of two types/styles of extremist content (ISIS magazine paragraphs in survey 1, and incel forum posts in survey 2), asking academics who have published peer-reviewed scientific papers analysing these two sorts of language (not simply ISIS or incel communities) to distinguish fake synthetic content from genuine text used as input to train the model (Baele, Naserian & Katz 2022).
Two situations were set up. In the first situation (Task 1), the experts had to distinguish ISIS/Incel content from non-ISIS/Incel content, and did not know that some of this content was AI-generated. In the second situation (Task 2), experts still had to distinguish ISIS/Incel content from non-ISIS/incel content, but were made aware that some of the texts they faced was generated by a language model.
India with its massive disinformation campaign against Pakistan, as recently revealed by EU Disinfo Lab, appears to be following what a US think tank RAND calls "Firehose of Falsehood" propaganda model. It has over 750 fake media outlets covering 119 countries. There are over 750 domain names, some in the name of dead people and others using stolen identities. Pakistani policymakers charged with countering the Indian propaganda should read the RAND report "Firehose of Falsehoods" for its 5 specific recommendations to the US government to effectively respond to the Russian disinformation campaign. In particular they should heed its key advice: "All other things being equal, messages received in greater volume and from more sources will be more persuasive.......Don't expect to counter Russia's firehose of falsehood with the squirt gun of truth. Instead, put raincoats on those at whom the firehose is aimed"
#Indian TV anchor Arnab Goswami on #PulwamaAttack: "This attack we have won like crazy." Goswami is known be close to #Modi government, often considered #BJP's mouthpiece. He know #Pulwama was about to happen. #TRPScam #WhatsAppLeaks #Kashmir #Balakot -balakot-air-strikes-26172The WhatsApp chats also reveal that Goswami allegedly had prior information about some sensitive events including the Balakot airstrikes, three days before it happened.In a massive development in the ongoing TRP scam case, a 500-page document of alleged chats of Republic TV's Arnab Goswami was allegedly leaked on social media. The alleged chats reveal damning information related to Goswami's proximity with the Prime Minister's office and members of the ruling government, his efforts to manipulate TRPs in his favour and seek help from the BJP government and much more. The chats allegedly show Goswami and Dasgupta discussing politicians, journalists, news networks, and the TRP system. In one of the alleged chats of February 14, 2019, Goswami says "This attack we have won like crazy." The message was sent on the same day when 40 CRPF personnel had lost their lives after a convoy of vehicles carrying security personnel on the Jammu Srinagar National Highway was attacked by a vehicle-borne suicide bomber at Lethpora in the Pulwama district, Jammu and Kashmir.The alleged chats also reveal that Goswami had prior information about some sensitive events and details including the Balakot airstrikes, three days before it happenedIn the alleged chats, there are several pages of Goswami conversing with former BARC CEO Partho Dasgupta. Several portions of the alleged chat have been leaked on social media. The alleged chats primarily show how Goswami asked for help to push the TRPs of the channel ahead of other news channels. The alleged chats also reveal that Goswami and Dasgupta met regularly, joked about politicians, discussed crucial political developments, and gossiped about journalists such as Rajdeep Sardesai ("he is losing his job"), Sagarika Ghose ("she is rotting in Times"), Aroon Purie ("part of a Cong propaganda machine"), Ashok Malik ("such a hypocrite"), Rajat Sharma (an "utter fool" with a "substandard channel"), Rahul Shivshankar ("an ass"), and business journalists ("all bloody bootlickers"). Some alleged chats from 2019 shows Goswami and Dasgupta discussing Bollywood actor Kangana Ranaut and how she helps in generating TRPs. "Kangana is a massive rating earner", Goswami says. Goswami's alleged WhatsApp chat was leaked on social media on the same day when the Bombay High Court adjourned the hearing in the TRP Scam case till 29 January. The Mumbai Police also said that they will not arrest Goswami until the next hearing. -balakot-air-strikes-26172
Video: Indian Film Festival IFFI Jury Head Calls 'Kashmir Files' "Vulgar"Calling it "propaganda" and a "vulgar movie", Israeli filmmaker Nadav Lapid, who headed the IFFI jury, said "all of them" were "disturbed and shocked" to see the film screened at the festival. -news/film-festival-iffi-jury-head-calls-the-kashmir-files-vulgar-propaganda-3560980New Delhi: The jury of 53rd International Film Festival in Goa has slammed the controversial movie "The Kashmir Files", which revolves around the killings and exodus of Kashmiri Pandits in 1990 from Kashmir Valley. Calling it "propaganda" and a "vulgar movie", Israeli filmmaker Nadav Lapid, who headed the IFFI jury, said "all of them" were "disturbed and shocked" to see the film screened at the festival."It seemed to us like a propagandist movie inappropriate for an artistic, competitive section of such a prestigious film festival. I feel totally comfortable to share openly these feelings here with you on stage. Since the spirit of having a festival is to accept also a critical discussion which is essential for art and for life," Mr Lapid said in his address.The Anupam Kher, Mithun Chakraborty and Pallavi Joshi starrer, directed by Vivek Agnihotri, was featured in the "Panorama" section of the festival last week.The film has been praised by the BJP and has been declared tax-free in most BJP-ruled states and was a box office hit. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah have praised on the movie.Many, however, have criticised the content, calling it a one-sided portrayal of the events that is sometimes factually incorrect and claiming the movie has a "propagandist tone".In May, Singapore banned the movie, citing concerns over its "potential to cause enmity between different communities"."The film will be refused classification for its provocative and one-sided portrayal of Muslims and the depictions of Hindus being persecuted in the ongoing conflict in Kashmir," read a statement from the Singapore government, reported news agency Press Trust of India.Mr Agnihotri has alleged an "international political campaign" against him and his film by foreign media.He claimed this was the reason his press conference was cancelled by the Foreign Correspondents Club and the Press Club of India in May. 2ff7e9595c
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